Capitulation Nation - Skeptics of an economic recovery

Capitulation Nation

Skeptics of an economic recovery

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Joe Monk replied to John A. Jasilli, Esq.'s discussion 'President Obama NET Job Approval: 0.03%!!!'

I'm reading the link you provided and it seems that the number should be +0.9%, not +0.03%. FWIW.

7 hours ago

John A. Jasilli, Esq. added a discussion

President Obama NET Job Approval: 0.03%!!!

Underwater in some polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

12 hours ago

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'Glass–Steagall Redux'

Kind of interesting discussion of the "Volcker Rule," and its problems. Also, equally interesting are the diagrams (some of them venn-type diagrams) of the different business sectors in the "banking industry"

on Saturday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'AIG Bailout - Payments to Counterparties'

More local color on all of this (or should I say gory details), from the NY Times "Goldman Helped Push A.I.G. to Precipice" http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/business/07goldman.html?pagewanted=1&hp

on Saturday

John Lipsius is now a member of Capitulation Nation

Welcome Them!

on Saturday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'AIG Bailout - Payments to Counterparties'

Yes, but you're assuming that this is a "poorly run underwriting." But maybe it was a successful underwriting. Why go to all of the bother selling the securities when you can just buy insurance for the securities from AIG instead? It's technically a…

on Friday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'How the Teamsters Beat Goldman Sachs'

Well the disclosure aspect goes some way towards a solution. At least, this way, a company with problems can figure out (1) that the bond holder is an "empty creditor", and also (maybe) (2) who has the real risk. Certainly a start. This was the rea…

on Thursday

Dave Nadeau replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'AIG Bailout - Payments to Counterparties'

This wouldn't be much more than a poorly run firm underwriting. When I was at DB we would do firm issues on converts, and if we couldn't sell them, we owned them. The ARS market failed in Feb 2007 because of the fact that none of the ARS auctions we…

on Thursday

Dave Nadeau replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'How the Teamsters Beat Goldman Sachs'

But an exchange listing or better disclosure doesn't solve the actual problem. The bondholder gets the votes, and the CDS writer has the risk. Of course I admit that it's a bit a of a radical idea, but it could be done easily in the writing of the…

on Thursday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'How the Teamsters Beat Goldman Sachs'

Your suggestion ("the CDS seller should be the one to retain the right to vote on the work-out") seems pretty radical. Certainly more radical than any of the proposed reforms on the table right now. The major reforms on the table are: (1) bring as…

on Thursday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'AIG Bailout - Payments to Counterparties'

The recent AIG data dump is, perhaps, starting to reveal some pretty interesting issues. This is the "kindergarten" version of this story (that's all that I'm capable of; I'm sorry): I think we all understand that AIG took on too much risk. It sol…

on Thursday

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'Explanation of recent Cold Weather: Arctic Oscillation'

Well I never looked at this daily data before, but it seems to suggest strong negative readings mid-February. Might be worth looking at this some more and in a week or so.

February 1

Dave Nadeau replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'Explanation of recent Cold Weather: Arctic Oscillation'

I'd have to get fully versed in this to understand these graphs. Are you suggesting the NOAA thinks there a possibility of repeating early January temps?

January 31

Joe Monk added a blog post

Where does Intel manufacture its microprocessors

(Based on a discussion with David earlier this week). Mostly in the US, and then secondarily in Israel. cf.: http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/manufacturing/manufacturing_qa.htm

January 31

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'Explanation of recent Cold Weather: Arctic Oscillation'

I see that the predictions for this AO index going into February look pretty grim (although the predictions are not so strong): http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

January 31

Joe Monk replied to Joe Monk's discussion 'Glass–Steagall Redux'

Actually Deutsche Bank was a strange case in the bail outs. They lobbied the Bundestag (German Parliament) the most to create the bail out. This was pretty controversial in Germany at the time (i.e. Deutsche Bank's lobbying role). But when the Bun…

January 31